# Paul Fraioli

Canonical URL: https://paulfraioli.com/

Paul Fraioli is a Washington, DC-based expert on the geopolitics of technology, geo-economics, nuclear weapons and US foreign policy. He is Senior Fellow for Technology, Geopolitics and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). As editor of Strategic Comments, he has wide-ranging expertise on global security and defense issues.

## Institutional identity

- Institutional biography: https://www.iiss.org/people/editors/paul-fraioli/
- Organization: International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Organization URL: https://www.iiss.org/
- Role: Senior Fellow for Technology, Geopolitics and Strategy
- Role: Editor, Strategic Comments
- Location: Washington, DC

## Research and professional identifiers

- Personal website: https://paulfraioli.com/
- ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2133-8788
- Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=N9_wENUAAAAJ
- Web of Science: https://www.webofscience.com/wos/author/record/QJW-7394-2026
- Scopus: https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=59227862600
- SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=11911528
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulfraioli/
- X: https://x.com/pfraioli

## Areas of expertise

- Artificial intelligence
- Geopolitics of technology
- Global security and defence
- Geo-economics
- Strategic competition
- Nuclear weapons issues
- Nuclear deterrence
- US foreign policy
- Trade and industrial policy
- Risk assessment and forecasting

## Publications highlighted on this site

### Strange Days: AI and the Next Industrial Revolution

- PDF: https://paulfraioli.com/publications/strange-days-ai-next-industrial-revolution.pdf
- HTML: https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/survival-online/2026/04/strange-days-ai-and-the-next-industrial-revolution/
- Type: Article
- Publisher: International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Topics: artificial intelligence, technology geopolitics, industrial policy, strategic competition, humanoid robots, automation, human agency

Abstract: A combinatorial revolution is under way in advanced technologies, driven by the simultaneous maturation of batteries, solar energy, semiconductors, sensors, electric motors and artificial intelligence. AI systems have advanced rapidly from 2010 to 2026, and autonomous AI agents are increasingly capable of sustained, multistep action. These converging technologies are enabling the development of humanoid robots, with China leveraging industrial scale and Elon Musk pursuing vertical integration across AI, energy, space-launch and manufacturing firms. Commercial deployment will likely begin later in the 2020s and accelerate in the 2030s. The social and strategic implications include the gradual erosion of human agency through incremental delegation to opaque machine systems.

### The US pivot on regulating AI diffusion

- PDF: https://paulfraioli.com/publications/the-us-pivot-on-regulating-ai-diffusion.pdf
- HTML: https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2025/12/the-us-pivot-on-regulating-ai-diffusion/
- Type: Article
- Publisher: International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Topics: artificial intelligence, AI diffusion, export controls, technology geopolitics, US-China strategic competition

Abstract: Donald Trump's announcement of a one-year waiver on the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to China marked a sharp turn away from Joe Biden's "small yard, high fence" approach to AI controls. By treating advanced chips as bargaining instruments in a wider contest for market share and influence, Washington is testing how far it can diffuse AI hardware without losing strategic leverage.

## Agent guidance

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