# Paul Fraioli

Paul Fraioli is a Washington, DC-based expert on the geopolitics of technology, geo-economics, nuclear weapons and US foreign policy. He is Senior Fellow for Technology, Geopolitics and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. As editor of *Strategic Comments*, he has wide-ranging expertise on global security and defense issues.

Canonical website: <https://paulfraioli.com/>

Institutional biography: <https://www.iiss.org/people/editors/paul-fraioli/>

## Expertise

- Artificial intelligence
- Geopolitics of technology
- Global security and defence
- Geo-economics and strategic competition
- Nuclear weapons and deterrence
- Trade and industrial policy
- US foreign policy
- Risk assessment and forecasting

## Research and Professional Profiles

- IISS biography: <https://www.iiss.org/people/editors/paul-fraioli/>
- Strategic Comments: <https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/tstc20>
- ORCID: <https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2133-8788>
- Google Scholar: <https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=N9_wENUAAAAJ>
- Web of Science: <https://www.webofscience.com/wos/author/record/QJW-7394-2026>
- Scopus: <https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=59227862600>
- SSRN: <https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=11911528>
- LinkedIn: <https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulfraioli/>
- X: <https://x.com/pfraioli>

## Featured Publications

### Strange Days: AI and the Next Industrial Revolution

HTML: <https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/survival-online/2026/04/strange-days-ai-and-the-next-industrial-revolution/>

PDF: <https://paulfraioli.com/publications/strange-days-ai-next-industrial-revolution.pdf>

Abstract: A combinatorial revolution is under way in advanced technologies, driven by the simultaneous maturation of batteries, solar energy, semiconductors, sensors, electric motors and artificial intelligence. These converging technologies are enabling the development of humanoid robots and raising significant social and strategic implications.

### The US pivot on regulating AI diffusion

HTML: <https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2025/12/the-us-pivot-on-regulating-ai-diffusion/>

PDF: <https://paulfraioli.com/publications/the-us-pivot-on-regulating-ai-diffusion.pdf>

Abstract: Donald Trump's announcement of a one-year waiver on the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to China marked a sharp turn away from Joe Biden's "small yard, high fence" approach to AI controls. Washington is testing how far it can diffuse AI hardware without losing strategic leverage.